Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
